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Forecast: Recession should 'bottom out' this year
By News-Sentinel Staff
Saturday, July 4, 2009 5:39 AM PDT
Wages will be lower and more people will be unemployed, but the state's economy should "finally hit bottom" this fall and begin a slow recovery, according to a forecast released by University of the Pacific.
Recovery from the recession is expected to take at least three years, and unemployment should remain above 8 percent through the end of 2013.
Some of the other predictions included in the report prepared by Pacific's Eberhardt School of Business:
The report states that it's too early to "assess the effectiveness" of the federal stimulus package but does contend the foreclosure relief package "proving to be ineffective."
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t jefferson wrote on Jul 6, 2009 6:31 AM:
edumacation wrote on Jul 4, 2009 8:45 AM:
UOP: "Manufacturing will lead the decline by shedding 135,000 jobs.."
Possibly, but manufacturing is a small sector of our energy and service based economy
UOP:" The health care industry should gain 13,000 jobs..." So what? These are mainly health insurance industry jobs focused on NOT paying legitimate health claims. What about the other one million jobs? This represents FAMILYS, not just numbers. One million more FAMILIES will be on the streets.---UOP read above.
UOP:" The Stockton metro area, which includes Lodi, will see a 16.5 percent unemployment rate in 2010.
That is conservative! UOP did not compute the loss of GOVERNMENT jobs which has been a major underpinning of this local economy.
This is the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. This is NOT "bottoming out". If you mean converting a recession to an economic depression, that could be?
This is a world crisis! Banks in Sweden are now CHARGING a 0.25% FEE on savings accounts. Will that happen here? " "
edumacation wrote on Jul 4, 2009 8:44 AM:
No other economists agree with this! Our GDP is decreasing, our national debt is greatly increasing, we have the largest unemployment rate in over 60 years, California is writing I.O.U.'s, and California G.O. bond ratings are in the sewer. Lets continue, commercial leases per sq ft are declining, commercial real estate is crashing, and residential real estate is on the down side of the secionbd big hill of the housing roller coaster. It's a mess that can only be restored with increased employment, higher wages, lower taxes, and lower deficits. How can this be accomplished?
UOP: ".. but the job market will remain weak through 2010. WEAK? We are on the cusp of a major economic depression!
Commercial banks are paying 0.25% onm passbook savings accounts at the same time they are leveraged at 40:1. The only assets they have is in paper or in delapidated unsold, off market housing inventory.
The only people who are profiting are investment banks and their cronies.
The whole F.I.R.E. sector is in a shambles. " "
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